Bitcoin has closed about important resistance but continues to move sideways in the last 24 hours as the altcoins sector shows more strength. The first cryptocurrency by market cap might be forming a range between its yearly low at around $18,000 with a top near its previous highs.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $21,600 with sideways movement in the day and a 7% loss over the past week.
Trader Josh Rager shared a potential thesis for the price of Bitcoin and its future performance. The cryptocurrency has historically formed a bottom for a certain amount of time after the Halving.
The event that reduces the reward for mining a Bitcoin block, the Halving has been a consistent indicator of BTC’s future performance. In the past, as seen below, every one of these events has been followed by a massive rally.
In 2017, Bitcoin rose from below $3,000 to its previous all-time high of $20,000. In 2012, BTC’s price crossed the $10 barrier and rose above $100 for the first time since its inception.
In 2020, Bitcoin went from a low of $3,000 to its current all-time high of $69,000. Each of these massive bull runs was followed by downside price action, similar to what BTC’s price has seen since late 2021, and long consolidation periods.
Bitcoin can spend years moving sideways in a range before breaking out into price discovery. Rager believes the new range could form between $18,000 and $48,000. BTC could move between the top and bottom of that range until the next Halving event in 2024. The trader said:
If you zoom in you’ll notice a range could be forming from the local bottom near $18k Over the course of the next 18 months (prior to the next BTC halving) could logically retest where price broke down next $48,000 or $50k for psychological purposes. Prior to the last BTC halving, Bitcoin price created a range with a higher-low (March crash). And the range high (daily/weekly close) acted as the key level that price would break before it’s first to over $60k. We could potentially see similar around $50k.
This prediction should materialize in the coming months with BTC seeing a top at $50,000, as Rager mentioned. In the future, the cryptocurrency could reclaim previous highs and re-enter price discovery.
However, each time BTC appreciates after a Halving, its profit percentage decreases. Therefore, it is unlikely that the cryptocurrency would rise to $1 million, as many have predicted. Rager believes around $200,000 should be a vital price target. The trader concluded:
Again pure speculation here with both timing and price. I’m not one to want to predict the price of Bitcoin but what I can say is I expect 18 more months of a large range for Bitcoin. Followed by fireworks after the next BTC halving March/April 2024 up through 2025.
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